The Past vs. the Future, Which Do I Look At?

This question, on the surface, seems so obvious to answer, the only real information we have is in the past. Thinking back on nearly twenty years with Trading Academy, one thing that has always struck me as quite odd is watching people study charts, asking them what they're thinking about, only to watch them point into the blank space to the right of the chart and start telling me a story about what's going to happen and how it’s going to happen.

Inevitably, countless people sit in front of their screen trying to imagine not only how price will reach their demand or supply zone, but even how it will go from there. This mental activity is truly one of the greatest wastes of time for a new trader and only a mere time filler for an experienced trader, who’s experience would certainly offer a much better ability to predict price action than a new trader. However, what an experienced trader knows is that consistent profitability comes from learning to focus on the setup, the patient waiting, the mental and emotional self-control of putting capital at risk, the management of the trade, either allowing price to run to a target, moving a stop at a point in price action THAT ALREADY HAPPENED, not “is it going to or could it happen”, when price HAS ALREADY behaved as needed in order to move the stop. Is this not all accomplished according to a plan that did not require PREDICTING how price will move, but rather FOLLOWING what price has done?

So, the question becomes, why are you spending even a moment trying to predict how price will move in the future when you will never know until it has already moved? Is it fear of the unknown? Or, subconsciously, are you hoping and attempting to will the market to go where you need it go to have a profitable trade? Yes, it is a fact, for you to make money, price will need to move in the direction you selected based on your strategy and plan. Yes, it is a fact, if price does not go your way, either continue from a breakout or turn at your preset level of demand or supply, that you will lose money. But hoping you can predict whether it will happen based on trying to imagine the way price action will unfold is not how the game should be played. You need to learn to trust your SETUP and know how to manage your position as price and time unfold from there. Oh, and maybe have a little talk with your rational mind that so desperately wants you to try and fill in the blanks for a sense of safety and security.

So, the next time you sit down to trade, be sure to focus on things you do control and things you CAN SEE, not the things you can't control, which are things you can't see. It won’t be easy or comfortable at first, but it will be a more professional approach. To find the answers you're looking for, keep your total focus to the left of current price, either above for supply or below for demand, at the origin of imbalance where unfilled institutional orders are likely to be and you'll find what you need. Follow your technical rules, all of which are based on studying the past, and when the time is right, the future will unfold, price action will occur and the answers will appear, most often in a completely different way than you conjured up anyway! Regardless of your creative mind that loves to make stuff up and try to fill in the blanks to put your nervous, rational mind at ease, you will have either made or lost money because the analysis of the past gave the correct or incorrect prediction of the future.

Keep your MIND focused on the chart and it will tell you where to look and what to look for. Your thoughts, good or bad, are inevitable and your success begins with controlling what you do with those thoughts. You're free to kick out the bad thoughts and only hold on to the thoughts that will lead to the outcomes you want. Start with kicking out the thoughts that keep trying to make the trade work just for the sake of your rational mind that is not comfortable with a lack of information and start to reprogram yourself to say, "I have all of the information I need right here, to the left."